BGC Highlights Risks of Illegal Gambling Growth in Premier League Markets

The Betting and Gaming Council has released forecasts indicating that illegal gambling operators stand to capture as much as £800 million in bets on Premier League matches during the current season, with projections showing potential growth to £1 billion by the 2027/28 campaign once a new 25% tax rate on remote betting takes effect from April 2027. This assessment arrives against a backdrop of successive tax adjustments that include the doubling of Remote Gaming Duty to 40% starting April 2026, measures that industry observers connect directly to shifts in customer behavior toward unlicensed offshore platforms.

Tax Changes and Their Immediate Context

From April 2026 the Remote Gaming Duty rate rises from its prior level to 40%, a step that adds to existing cost pressures on licensed operators already navigating competitive margins and regulatory compliance requirements. The Betting and Gaming Council links this increase to an expanding black market because higher duties raise the operational expenses passed along to customers in the form of adjusted odds or reduced promotions, prompting some bettors to seek alternatives that lack any licensing oversight. Those alternatives operate without the consumer protections built into the regulated sector, including dispute resolution mechanisms and responsible gambling tools that licensed sites must provide under UK law.

By August 2026 the effects of the doubled duty will have been in place for several months, setting the stage for the further remote betting tax scheduled for April 2027. The council's modeling shows the combined impact could push illegal operators toward the £1 billion mark in Premier League betting alone, reflecting both the larger tax burden and the continued migration of volume away from regulated channels. Data from related market sizing exercises supports the trajectory, with the UK Illegal Market Sizing 2025-31 report providing updated figures on how tax differentials influence offshore activity.

Premier League Betting Volume at Stake

The forecast focuses specifically on Premier League matches because they represent the highest-profile and highest-volume betting product in the UK market, drawing both domestic and international interest. Illegal operators can offer competitive pricing on these fixtures without incurring the tax liabilities or licensing fees that apply to legitimate businesses, creating a structural price advantage that grows more pronounced each time duties increase. The Betting and Gaming Council estimates the current season's illegal share at up to £800 million, a figure that already accounts for the duty change implemented in April 2026 and anticipates further acceleration once the 25% remote betting tax arrives in 2027.

Observers note that the absence of consumer safeguards on offshore sites extends beyond financial protections to include limited or nonexistent age verification and problem gambling interventions, areas where licensed operators face strict enforcement. The council's warning therefore centers on the dual risk of revenue leakage from the regulated market and the corresponding rise in exposure for bettors who move to unregulated platforms. Figures released alongside the forecast illustrate how each successive tax adjustment correlates with measurable growth in illegal market share, particularly on high-visibility products such as Premier League matches that attract the largest betting turnover.

Industry Response and Market Dynamics

Industry groups have pointed out that teh sequence of tax rises beginning in April 2026 and continuing into 2027 creates a cumulative cost environment that licensed operators cannot fully absorb without affecting customer offers. The Betting and Gaming Council presents the £800 million and £1 billion projections as direct outcomes of these pressures rather than independent market trends, emphasizing that the black market expands when the price differential between regulated and unregulated betting becomes significant enough to influence consumer choice. The same analysis indicates that Premier League betting serves as a leading indicator because of its consistent volume and broad appeal, making it an early signal of wider shifts across other sports and event types.

Additional context comes from the timing of the changes: the duty doubling occurs before the start of the 2026/27 season, while the new remote betting tax aligns with the preparation period for 2027/28. This staggered implementation allows the council to model incremental impacts, showing how each layer compounds the incentive for bettors to explore offshore options that operate outside the tax and regulatory framework altogether.

Conclusion

The Betting and Gaming Council's forecast therefore ties the projected growth in illegal Premier League betting directly to the documented tax increases scheduled for April 2026 and April 2027. The £800 million figure for the current season and the £1 billion projection for 2027/28 reflect the council's assessment of how cost pressures on licensed operators translate into expanded opportunity for unlicensed sites that do not contribute to regulatory compliance or consumer protection standards. Those projections remain anchored in the specific sequence of duty changes and the resulting price differentials that continue to shape the UK betting landscape.